5 reasons why the M4 iPad Pro rumors actually make sense

Apple is about to unveil new iPads on May 7, and the most surprising rumored part of it is not that there will be a fourth Apple Pencil or OLED displays. Rather, it’s that the iPad Pro might skip the M3 altogether and jump from the M2 to the M4.

That’s right, the M4, an unreleased, unannounced processor may show up in the iPad Pro before the Mac. That’s highly unusual and seems to make no sense…but maybe it does? Apple could have some good reasons to debut the M4 in the iPad Pro this year, especially when we consider what the M4 is supposed to be, Apple’s AI push at WWDC next month, and the need to boost seriously sagging iPad sales.

What we expect from the M4

Before we get into some reasons why an M4 iPad Pro makes sense at this particular time, let’s review what we expect it to be.

The M4 is supposed to be the cousin to Apple’s A18 processor that will debut in the iPhone 16 Pro this year. In our preview of that chip, we wrote that we expect it to be made on a refined 3nm process and carry more or less the usual expected CPU and GPU improvements, but a big boost to AI processing power. Apple’s Neural Engine, and perhaps the GPU, are probably going to get huge enhancements as the company seeks to differentiate its products with on-device AI processing in iOS 18, iPadOS 18, and macOS 15.

The M3 was just announced last Halloween, and six months seems like an awful fast jump to the next M-series processor. But recall that while the M3 came more than a year after M2, which was released in June—it reportedly arrived a few months late as a result of the move to TSMC’s then-new 3nm process. Based on that revised timeline, the M4 might be right on time. So if the design is done and the chips are ready to roll, there are some good reasons why Apple might want to seemingly push it out the door in the iPad Pro first.

Recall also that this spring release of iPads is coming pretty late (we first expected them in March). Maybe waiting for M4 was part of the reason why?

Why an M4 iPad Pro makes sense right now

I can think of a number of reasons why Apple would want to ship an iPad Pro this month. None of them are all that compelling on their own, but taken together, I think it makes a good case for what seems like a bizarre move.

1. iPad Pro volumes are low

If the M4 is ready to ship already, it’s almost certainly not ready to be manufactured in really big numbers. Apple doesn’t break down individual models, but I’d be willing to bet that the iPad Pro is a pretty small fraction of overall iPad sales.

On the Mac side, however, the M4 would go in the most popular models: the entry-level Mac mini, iMac, MacBook Air, and MacBook Pro. There simply may not be enough M4 chips produced yet to put in the MacBook, but plenty for the comparatively smaller number of iPad Pros Apple would be expected to sell.

It’s just a good way to get the chip out there in limited quantities while production scales up.

2. iPad sales need a big boost

It’s no secret that iPad sales have been bad lately. It’s been over a year and a half since any new model was released, and even iPad lovers find their three-year-old iPads perfectly suitable for everything they use them for.

One way to boost iPad sales—if not in volume than in revenue—is to push more people to the most expensive models. Making iPad Pro the first Apple device with the M4, and marketing it as ready for some really revolutionary AI coming later this year, is definitely one way to do that.

Apple would certainly focus on the AI angle when it announces the iPad Pro on May 7 if it has an M4 in it, but the real sales pitch would come a month later at WWDC—and the iPad Pro would be the only iPad ready for it on day one.

3. Apple needs an AI-ready device before WWDC

Imagine you’re Apple, and you’re going to announce iOS 18, iPadOS 18, and macOS 15 with a bunch of cool new AI features in about a month. Some of those features are going to require a new processor with a new Neural Engine. Only that’s not even going to be announced until the iPhone is unveiled three months later.

Having an M4 iPad on the market, presumably with the new Neural Engine or other AI enhancements, gives Apple the opportunity to show off the operating systems in full. They can talk about the enhanced AI features as something available only on the new iPad Pro, with a vague promise that other iPhones and Macs and stuff will get those capabilities “soon.”

It lets a secretive company like Apple put its best AI foot forward at a critical juncture, instead of keeping the best stuff under wraps until the iPhone announcement this fall. Again, this assumes that some of the iOS and iPadOS 18 features will require the enhanced AI performance of the M4 and A17.

4. Devs will need AI hardware before the fall

If this WWDC is going to be all about AI and cool new AI models that run locally on your Apple hardware instead of in the cloud, you can bet that Apple will build frameworks for developers to tap into that functionality, too.

And that means Apple will want developers to have hardware in hand to start building apps, so that when iOS and iPadOS 18 roll out in the fall, there’s a suite of AI-enhanced apps ready to take advantage of it.

A Mac seems like the obvious candidate for this development, but if M4 isn’t yet ready for Mac-like volumes, or if some of the frameworks are only for iOS and iPadOS, then an iPad Pro is the next best thing (other than surprise launching the next iPhone months early, which of course is not going to happen).

An M4-powered iPad Pro may be the de facto “AI dev kit” from WWDC in June until the release of new operating systems and developer tools in September/October.

5. An M3 iPad Pro would be poorly timed

Finally, absent all the reasons for the M4 to be in the iPad Pro, perhaps the best reason is that the M3 does not belong in it. If Apple shipped an iPad Pro with M3, it wouldn’t be updated again until at least next summer, and a more likely timeframe would be next fall (iPad Pro releases are usually around a year and a half apart).

If the latest versions of iOS and iPadOS have impressive new AI features this fall, some of which require the new chips to run, can you imagine Apple’s premium iPads being left out of the loop for 6-12 months?

If Apple is going to make all of its major products available with new more powerful AI hardware and software by the end of the year, it has three options:

Wait to release the iPad Pro until the fall, a full two years since its last update.

Release a new iPad Prow with M3 now and then refresh it with M4 in the fall, angering all the customers who just bought the M3 version.

Release the M4 version early, and use it to showcase the advanced AI features we can expect with this fall’s OS updates.

Of the three, I think the last one is the best option, provided the M4 is actually ready to ship the volumes the iPad Pro needs. Of course, Apple is an incredibly secretive company and all our assumptions are based on leaks and rumors that could very well be wrong. We won’t have long to wait, as the new iPads are expected on May 7 and WWDC is just a month later.

Stay up to date with the latest developments for the iPad Pro in our rumor roundup.

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